For all the bluster and possible danger of Iran getting its hands on or building its own nuclear weapons, the country’s vast oil resources tend to be forgotten. High oil prices mean Iran can not only keep pursuing its nuclear ambitions with relative impunity, its also able to work around the sanctions thrown at it by the UN.
Peter Bergen, who wrote the excellent Holy War, Inc., has penned a mammoth investigative report for the Independent that points to the possible decline of Al Queda as a force in the Middle East. Interestingly, it’s not American military pressure but Muslim religious leaders who are turning the tide away from extremism. Al Queda’s predilection for slaughtering plenty of innocent Muslims along with whoever else they have on their hit list isn’t going down too well, and opinion i turning against jihadism. It’s interesting that after pulling off the most spectacular terrorist attack in history and subsequently evading the American military for the better part of a decade, the one thing Bin Laden and Co. didn’t account for is human decency.
CIA director Michael Hayden recently announced that Al Queda is on the ropes, a spent force, and that the group has failed to gain traction in Iraq. Well, not so fast. A recent editorial in the Guardian points out that mass uprisings may not be what Bin Laden has in mind when he calls for jihadist revolution, and more importantly, terrorists don’t even need mass support to achieve their goals. All they need is the loyalty of a hard-core group of supporters, and they can continue their operations indefinitely. Will the leaders of those die-hards be Al Queda? Maybe not, as recent intelligence has indicated some disillusionment with Bin Laden and Zawahiri. At any rate, the last time the United States took their eye off the ball, they ended up suffering the most devastating attack in the US history, invading Afghanistan and Iraq, and basically ruining their standing in the world. For their own sake, a little more vigilance and a lot less swagger might be a good idea.
While the traditional model of aid for developing countries is to dump a big pile of money into the lap of sometimes questionable governments, it turns out that the key to ending poverty might be to decentralize, lend smaller amounts of money to a larger group of people, and distribute cell phones amongst the poor. That’s subject of Wired founder Kevin Kelly’s blog post, which points to research indicating that democracy is more likely to sprout up when money, resources and communication tools are given out on a many-to-many model rather than a hierarchical, authoritarian approach. I recently had a chance to interview someone at Kiva.org, a microfinancing site, and he reiterated that not only do micro-loans do tangible good but the poorest beneficiaries of the loans are the most likely to pay back their debts.
At any rate, its interesting to see the Internet peer-to-peer model spreading to the developing world at the micro level. At the macro level, as noted in Fareed Zakaria’s “The Post-American World,” developing nations like India and China re already reaping the benefits of outsourcing, connectivity and a global marketplace.
So says a new article in the New York Times. THe reasons cited include fatigue with an endless and pointless conflict, media running out of things to say about the war, and a government that’s more secretive than any since the Nixon administration. But you’ve got to wonder what’s wrong with a country when it’s people give a war in which 4000+ of their own soldiers and an untold number of Iraqis have died a colossal “meh.” With this kind of attitude, it’s no wonder that rising powers like China and India will soon be eating our lunch.
Vice Magazine is a snarky and somewhat pretentious rag that’s funny for about ten minutes, but gradually becomes annoying after you’ve read the tenth faux-rebellious article about hipsters or some band you’ve never heard of, wedged up against an ad for some expensive perfume. VBS.TV, Vice’s video arm, VBS.TV, is a different beast entirely, with great documentaries that delve into the world’s hot spots and go past the usual surface gloss of the Six O’Clock News (no surprise there, since no-one under 40 watches the nightly news anymore.) This report on the gun markets of Pakistan is particularly decent.
Current TV is hosting a really interesting documentary on Chongqing, one of the “megacities” springing up in China’s feverish push to become the dominant economic power of the 21st century. Definitely worth a watch.
[swf]http://current.com/e/88938803[/swf]
Fareed Zakaria, Newsweek’s resident smart foreign policy guy. has a corker of an article about what the world will be like once developing economies like India, China and Russia all develop to the point where they equal or surpass the United States. This will be a turning point in history, Zakaria says, and he’s right. It’s inevitable that the US won’t be on the top forever, and Zakaria remains hopeful that the transition will be somewhat peaceful. It’s all excerpted from his new book, “The Post-American World,” due out in May.